Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018659 0.021185 0.023935 0.027155 0.030823 0.034875 0.039692
2025-03-09 0.014822 0.018313 0.022454 0.027738 0.034313 0.042240 0.052548
2025-03-16 0.012383 0.016194 0.020984 0.027463 0.036023 0.046979 0.062130
2025-03-23 0.011098 0.015206 0.020621 0.028305 0.038974 0.053326 0.074213
2025-03-30 0.009549 0.013613 0.019191 0.027440 0.039388 0.056163 0.081675
2025-04-06 0.008467 0.012506 0.018253 0.027069 0.040338 0.059695 0.090328
2025-04-13 0.007402 0.011288 0.016998 0.026055 0.040163 0.061475 0.096441
2025-04-20 0.006976 0.010965 0.017010 0.026906 0.042836 0.067714 0.109967
2025-04-27 0.006564 0.010611 0.016925 0.027569 0.045239 0.073708 0.123656
2025-05-04 0.006236 0.010353 0.016951 0.028390 0.047944 0.080392 0.139110
2025-05-11 0.005739 0.009764 0.016380 0.028152 0.048827 0.084094 0.149782
2025-05-18 0.005345 0.009309 0.015985 0.028162 0.050112 0.088558 0.162183
2025-05-25 0.004906 0.008747 0.015371 0.027756 0.050669 0.091874 0.173006
2025-06-01 0.004660 0.008503 0.015291 0.028301 0.053002 0.098614 0.190965
2025-06-08 0.004317 0.008051 0.014795 0.028023 0.053759 0.102480 0.203754
2025-06-15 0.004164 0.007936 0.014900 0.028883 0.056755 0.110852 0.226301
2025-06-22 0.003799 0.007386 0.014143 0.027999 0.056241 0.112319 0.234920
2025-06-29 0.003533 0.007001 0.013667 0.027621 0.056692 0.115722 0.247882
2025-07-06 0.003216 0.006489 0.012900 0.026585 0.055688 0.116048 0.254259
2025-07-13 0.003132 0.006442 0.013052 0.027454 0.058751 0.125122 0.280741
2025-07-20 0.003033 0.006354 0.013112 0.028131 0.061461 0.133682 0.306958
2025-07-27 0.002955 0.006303 0.013243 0.028970 0.064598 0.143454 0.336990
2025-08-03 0.002783 0.006036 0.012896 0.028726 0.065283 0.147816 0.354712